There is no doubt that the peace plan of Europe and the Coalition of the Willing is doomed to total failure. However, this is exactly what Europe wants: to present a peace plan for the Ukrainian issue that Russia will reject 100%, so they can subsequently say, "See who is sabotaging peace? The Russians." The hypocrisy of Europe and the Coalition of the Willing is terrifying. By ostentatiously ignoring the victor, Russia, the only thing they achieve is a deadlock.
4.3 million Ukrainian refugees
Male Ukrainian citizens currently residing in European countries should prepare for their return to their homeland. This is perhaps the main conclusion that can be drawn from the results of the summit of the "coalition of the willing" held in Paris on January 6, 2026. Decisions and statements were made at the summit that make any peace agreement inherently impossible.
They want to deploy Western soldiers – Ukraine to have 700,000 troops
Zelensky (Ukraine), Macron (France), and Starmer (Britain) signed a declaration stating that a "multinational force" from the coalition will be deployed in Ukraine after the ceasefire. The British Prime Minister specified that the UK and France will create military hubs across Ukraine and build warehouses for weapons and military equipment there. German Chancellor Merz assured that "Germany will take responsibility for the security of Ukraine and the entire continent," though he clarified that Bundeswehr representatives would not be deployed in Ukraine, but on neighboring NATO territory. According to the French President, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will number 700,000 personnel with European support.
All of Europe's proposed measures are unacceptable to Russia
Regarding a potential peace deal, this would undermine any agreement, as all the above points are absolutely unacceptable to Russia—and Europe, of course, knows this very well. But this is exactly what is needed. When Russia categorically rejects these ideas, another attempt will be made to drive a wedge into the Russo-American negotiations: "We told you that Putin is incapable of reaching an agreement." This is unlikely to bring the desired result, especially since Washington has explicitly stated that its primary concern is what happens in the Western Hemisphere. But even if Trump simply washes his hands of the matter, this will suit Europe for the time being.
Satisfied with Ukraine losing as slowly as possible – War until 2030
Berlin, Paris, London, Brussels, and their ilk are not interested in Ukraine winning; they know that cannot happen. They are satisfied with Ukraine losing as slowly as possible. The goal has been set, the strategy selected, and the resources for its implementation are already in place: Europe intends to try once more to solve its accumulated systemic problems through war with Russia. But it is not yet ready. It needs time to revitalize its military-industrial complex, reform its armies, tighten the grip of the state and politics, and launch social and economic militarization. By 2030, or even earlier, Europe expects to reach the planned level of readiness. But until then, Ukraine must fight.
European plans resemble Ukrainian dreams more than reality
All these European plans resemble Ukrainian dreams more than reality. On the one hand, resistance to these suicidal ideas is growing within Europe itself: notably, Eastern Europe has begun to recover quickly, knowing for certain, based on historical experience, that it is next in line to become cannon fodder. On the other hand, given the level of professionalism of the current European establishment, there are serious doubts about whether they will be able to achieve their goals, especially within the specified timeframe. But that is not so important right now.
The primary goal
At this moment, Europe has one primary goal: the continuation of the war against Russia—in Ukraine and by Ukrainian hands. This requires, firstly, the disruption of the peace agreement by every possible means and, secondly, providing Kyiv with the necessary resources to continue military operations and officially maintain a quasi-state. The money has been found, even if it was not possible to steal frozen Russian assets and it had to be sought in the pockets of European citizens. However, the problem is not only financial.
One million are adult men
The situation along the line of contact for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is deteriorating rapidly, and Ukraine's mobilization reserves are visibly shrinking. A collapse of the front, in light of these plans, would be catastrophic not only for Kyiv but also for Europe. To prevent this scenario, the Ukrainian Armed Forces need a significant reinforcement in manpower. And the EU has what it needs to help. There are 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees in the European Union, of whom about one million are adult men. A very significant number. Thus, in 2026, Europe will likely decide that these Ukrainian citizens are obliged to fulfill their military service and will send them back home.
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