Hybrid coercion revealed as China shifts to a bloodless strategy to force Taiwan’s reunification

In a significant shift in China’s strategy regarding reunification with Taiwan, President Xi Jinping is moving forward, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the Asian Times.
Following the wave of purges within the leadership ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Beijing seems to be abandoning, at least temporarily, the scenario of an immediate military invasion, choosing a tactic of “hybrid coercion” designed to compel the island’s submission without even one gunshot.

The strategy of exhaustion and its three pillars of pressure

According to the reports, Xi Jinping is now betting on a combined campaign aimed at the complete exhaustion of Taiwan’s resources and psychology.
This tactic is described by Laura Rosenberger, the United States representative for Taiwan affairs, as a “broad coercive campaign” operating on three levels:

1) Military display of force: Continuous military exercises in the maritime and airspace around the island, which drain Taiwan’s defensive readiness.

2) Cyberattacks and economic pressure: Targeted strikes on infrastructure and economic blockade measures that weaken the island’s resilience.

3) Legal warfare (Lawfare): Use of Chinese national legislation against Taiwan’s governing elite, with the aim of politically isolating them.

The background of the purges and readiness for escalation, the fall and dismissal of the “Big Brother” Zhang Youxia

The change in tactics is directly linked to the recent sweeping purges in the leadership of the Chinese military and in particular to the dramatic downfall of senior figures.
The recent, sudden purge of China’s top military hierarchy, culminating in the arrest of General Zhang Youxia, marks a historic turning point.
Xi Jinping, setting aside even his closest allies, is now concentrating absolute command of the armed forces in his own hands.
This “iron fist” inside the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) appears to be preparing the ground for a new, more complex phase in the confrontation with Taiwan.

The news that shook Beijing on 24 January 2026 was the arrest of General Zhang Youxia.
A childhood friend of Xi Jinping, whom the Chinese leader referred to as “big brother,” Zhang was one of the few generals with real combat experience.
According to leaks from closed briefings:

1) Zhang is accused of leaking nuclear secrets to the United States, accepting bribes for military promotions, and creating political cliques.

2) Analysts estimate that the real cause of the rift was their disagreement over the timeline for an invasion of Taiwan.

3) Xi Jinping is pushing for readiness by 2027, while Zhang considered 2035 a more realistic target.

With Zhang’s removal, Xi Jinping neutralizes any voice that could delay or challenge his decisions on Taiwan.

Different readings

While the WSJ focuses on conflict avoidance, there are alternative interpretations.
Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, head of the Center for Global Politics at the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, supports a different theory.
According to Zaklyazminskaya, this new purge campaign may indicate that Beijing is in fact preparing for a “sudden military escalation.”
The replacement of senior officers may aim to install figures of absolute loyalty, ready to execute an aggressive operation if the coercive tactic fails to deliver the expected results.

A strangulation strategy without gunfire

Despite the harsh rhetoric, analysts estimate that a direct invasion is less likely in the short term.
Xi Jinping appears to be turning to a “gray zone” campaign, aimed at bending Taiwan without open conflict, which means:

1) Continuous military exercises simulating a maritime and air blockade of the island.

2) Attacks on Taiwan’s energy infrastructure and healthcare system.

3) Use of Chinese legislation to criminalize the political actions of Taiwanese officials.

For the West, Xi Jinping’s approach now constitutes a “gray zone siege.”
Beijing is not seeking the destruction of Taiwan, but the acceptance of its sovereignty through the gradual collapse of the island’s resistance.
The “no gunfire” strategy is viewed by the Chinese leadership as the safest path to reunification, avoiding a direct and dangerous military confrontation with the United States.

Washington’s response: Armaments and the Silicon Pact

The Trump administration responds with a strategy of “deterrence by denial,” transforming Taiwan into a “steel porcupine.”
On one hand, it approved arms sales worth 11.1 billion dollars, including HIMARS systems and ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 500 kilometers.
On the other hand, the Silicon Pact was signed, an unprecedented trade agreement under which Taiwan commits to invest 500 billion dollars in the United States, mainly in semiconductor factories.
In return, the United States reduces tariffs to 15% and integrates Taiwanese technology into its national security framework.

The essence of the American strategy is to make Taiwan so indispensable to the U.S. economy and so militarily costly for China that Beijing will never dare to take the final step.
However, with Xi Jinping now commanding the military as a “one man committee,” the risk of miscalculation remains higher than ever.

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