Europe has fallen into a major dilemma, to save NATO or to transform the European Union into a defense union.
And time is running out, Russia will attack very soon, not in years, as NATO warned, but practically tomorrow.
Did you not know?
After all, the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on April 25, 2026: “This is really serious.
I am talking about the short term, months and not years.
The biggest and most important question for Europe is whether the United States is ready to be as faithful as our treaties define.
Is NATO still an organization ready to respond politically and logistically, for example, to an attempted attack by Russia?”
And although Tusk, in the interview with the Financial Times on April 25, 2026, began to clarify that he wanted his remarks to be understood not as skepticism regarding Article 5 of the NATO treaty, but “rather as a dream of turning paper guarantees into something very practical”, it is clear: Europe does not trust America.
And there are valid reasons for this, and not only the grand statements of Trump.
Even the free riders are speaking
On the same day, 25/4, when Tusk’s interview was published, the United States Secretary of Defense once again called the European allies “free riders” and Reuters published internal correspondence of the Pentagon discussing possible measures by the United States to punish the Europeans for refusing to support the American operation against Iran.
Of course, there is no discussion of the United States withdrawing from NATO.
The United States will remove the dissenters but faces legal obstacles
On the contrary, the United States is examining ways to remove unfaithful countries, those refusing to assist in the Iran operation, from leadership positions within the alliance, punishing them also bilaterally, for example, by refusing Britain support for the Falkland Islands (the Malvinas for Argentina).
However, another option is the suspension of Spain (from NATO.
Clearly, this is legally impossible, but the very fact that the Trump administration is discussing such ideas cannot but worry Europe.
Article 5 of the NATO Charter has no meaning
Not only does Article 5 of the NATO Charter provide for no automatism, in the sense of entering into war by one of the alliance members, but the alliance itself has lost all meaning for Trump.
It is important for him for projecting American power, but not for defending the unity of NATO.
But this unity is threatened only by internal disagreements, not by external opponents, neither Russia nor China, nor even anyone else in the world, who intends to attack the most powerful military bloc in history.
The North Atlantic Alliance or NATO can become involved in war only as a result of its own expansion beyond its borders, either through an attempt at expansion or simply aggression against another country.
NATO provoked Russia with the possibility and desire to expand into Ukraine
What is happening in Ukraine falls precisely into the first category: NATO provoked Russia with the possibility and the desire to expand into Ukraine, thus triggering Russia’s military reaction.
And now it convinces everyone and itself that Russia is preparing to attack the European part of NATO, the countries of the Baltic and Poland are most often mentioned, and that it must obtain protection guarantees from the Americans.
The United States has repeatedly stated that it will fight for every inch of NATO territory, loudly under Biden, less dynamically under Trump.
But this does not matter.
No one really believes that Russia plans to attack NATO.
The hysteria continues to escalate but for what purpose?
To justify the ever increasing involvement of Europe in the Ukrainian conflict: the Europeans want at the same time to wage a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine and to have guarantees that Russia will never retaliate, because they are “clean”, that is, under the protection of NATO, which in reality is the United States.
This plan works for now, but the growing discord within the West, between the two sides of the Atlantic, could at some point lead the United States to decide to leave Europe alone, not to abandon it, but to make it clear that it will no longer support European claims in Ukraine.
And without American weapons, satellites and, most importantly, protection, Europe will not hold Ukraine for long.
This prospect seems unrealistic at the moment, but who knows what the future brings?
The Europeans understand that without the United States, that is, without NATO, they have no chance of holding Ukraine, and that is why they exaggerate the idea of an “inevitable Russian attack on Europe if NATO is weakened”.
The Americans must fear that they will have to personally become involved in a new major war in Europe, and, in order to prevent this, they will agree to the ever greater involvement of the Europeans in the Ukrainian conflict. Seemingly not as members of NATO, but as Europeans, a simplistic trick that, of course, will deceive no one.
The Europeans themselves understand this and that is why they are trying to come up with contingency plans in case of American withdrawal.
At the recent informal EU summit in Cyprus, a decision was made to develop a plan for the implementation of Article 42 of the Treaty establishing the European Union, the very clause that provides for mutual assistance in the event of an attack.
These obligations exist only on paper, because the EU, as an alliance, has no real military component.
There is only NATO, it is the anchor of the EU.
And NATO is the United States and everything depends exclusively on their understanding of the role and goals of the alliance.
Expecting that Europe will gain control of Ukraine by intimidating America with the prospect of an imminent Russia attack on NATO is certainly possible, but it is futile and extremely dangerous, for Europe itself.
Let us remember Russia cannot be defeated. It cannot be defeated. It cannot be cornered. Therefore let us accept the inevitable and logical. Ukraine will end up in the Russian sphere of influence.
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