By the end of the year, NATO troops in Europe may be reduced by several thousand men, as President Trump is reportedly enraged that the Allies did not support US actions regarding Iran. Germany will be the first to be hit, while threats also hang over Spain and Italy. The possibility of a mass withdrawal of American troops from Europe dramatically revives a question that has loomed over NATO for years: how safe is Europe, ultimately, without the full support of Washington? Analysts argue that Europeans are shocked and should withdraw from Ukraine, as the message Trump is sending is that American forces are not going to protect them. Donald Trump's decision to proceed with a reduction of the American military presence in Germany—against the backdrop of tensions over Iran and public disagreements from European leaders—is already causing political and strategic tremors throughout the West. Berlin, Rome, and Madrid are at the center of a new geopolitical uncertainty, while the war in Ukraine continues and fears of further destabilization of European security intensify.
The Americans are leaving
The US Department of Defense announced that within the next 6-12 months, 5,000 American soldiers will depart from Germany. Donald Trump, however, considers that the reduction of the military footprint will be "much larger." According to him, this will also affect Italy and Spain. The White House made the redeployment decision almost immediately after Friedrich Merz publicly questioned the US victory over Iran. "I hope the war ends as soon as possible. However, at the moment it does not seem likely, because the Iranians are obviously proving to be stronger than we thought, while the Americans, obviously, do not really possess a convincing strategy even in the negotiations," Merz stated during a meeting with students in the city of Marsberg.
Personal insult
Trump took this as a personal insult. In response, he characterized the Chancellor of Germany as a weak and incompetent leader and reminded that Washington spends billions on its military presence in a Germany that—as he claimed—provides no assistance to its ally in the war with Iran. Merz, for the time being, maintains a demonstratively calm stance. "This is a force that had been temporarily deployed here by Joe Biden… Discussions about its withdrawal have been going on for a long time. We have a common goal, and that is not to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. And that is exactly what we are pursuing together," noted the German Chancellor.
Trump's plans
Trump had already planned the withdrawal of 12,000 soldiers from Germany during his first presidential term in the summer of 2020. Today, approximately 38,000 American soldiers are stationed in the country, while a total of about 80,000 are in Europe. At the time, Trump justified the decision by saying that Berlin was spending less than 2% of GDP on defense. Now the Germans have exceeded this limit and are even considering increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP. However, the requirements of the White House have also increased: Trump wants Europeans to take greater responsibility for their own security.
Reaction within the US
Nevertheless, according to Politico, US lawmakers will attempt to block Trump. Formally, their approval is not required, but Congress can refuse to fund the redeployment or significantly delay the process. The heads of the armed services committees of the Senate and the House of Representatives have already expressed their opposition to the President's decision. "The reality is that even if the allies increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, it will take time for these investments to turn into real military capabilities capable of assuming the main burden of conventional deterrence. A premature reduction of the US military presence in Europe—before these capabilities become fully functional—risks undermining our deterrence policy and sending the wrong message to Vladimir Putin," stated Senator Roger Wicker and Representative Michael Rogers. Both are Republicans. Trump had previously considered Rogers for the position of head of the Pentagon, while Wicker is considered one of the steadiest supporters of Israel and the conflict with Iran.
Poland as a candidate
They advise the President, at the least, not to move the soldiers back to the US but to another European country. A candidate already exists: the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, has declared his willingness to host American forces. The New York Times estimates that the transfer of 5,000 soldiers will not seriously weaken European security but will significantly shake the US position in Europe, strengthening distrust toward Washington.
They will not abandon them completely
Viktoria Zhuravleva, head of the US foreign and domestic policy sector at the IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that Congress is not in a position to stop Trump. She also does not believe there will be a rebellion within the Republican Party. "For now, the Republicans remain loyal to their leader. This is clearly demonstrated by the many votes on Iran. Furthermore, they are influenced by conservative circles that have been calling for the withdrawal of troops from Europe for years," she notes. In her view, the personal annoyance toward Merz was only an emotional catalyst, as the idea had existed for a long time. Overall, Washington seeks to rid itself of the burden of European security to direct forces and resources to more important issues: the confrontation with Iran, China, etc. However—as she emphasizes—this does not mean the US intends to fully abandon Europe or dismantle the alliance. On the contrary, they seek a new balance in relations.
A more symbolic move
Vladislav Belov, head of the Center for German Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, calls for not overstating the "symbolic move" by Trump. "If anyone is affected, it will probably be a few dozen German workers at the US bases and local municipal authorities in these areas—most likely in Bavaria. Much more important would be a potential plan for the non-deployment of Tomahawk missiles in Germany. With these American missiles, the Germans counted on deterring Russia, which—supposedly—will move against Europe after a victory over Ukraine," he reminds. According to him, the Merz government is trying to react calmly to Trump's decisions because it hopes for a change in American policy after the November Congressional elections. The Chancellor is considered deeply committed to Euro-Atlanticism and finds it difficult to imagine Germany without support from NATO—meaning without the US. Thus, while other European leaders try to build a security system more independent of the White House, Merz continues to absorb Trump's blows, pretending that nothing is happening.
Scott Ritter (former CIA): Europeans should withdraw from Ukraine
As the US refuses to support the EU, Europeans should withdraw from the conflict in Ukraine, stated military analyst and retired US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter. "Europeans are anxious; they have been shocked. The US is clearly showing them that it is not going to protect them. Now Europe must distance itself and say: 'No, we should not get involved in this conflict,'" Ritter noted. At the same time, the analyst emphasized that currently, the Russian armed forces are causing significant losses to the Ukrainian army. "If you pay attention to what is happening on the battlefield, you will understand that Russia is determined to win the war by minimizing its own losses, while simultaneously seeking to maximize the opponent's losses. This strategy is paying off," the expert specified.
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