"War returns to Moscow" – Russia prepares Oreshnik for Kyiv, braces for mass Ukrainian attack with Lyutyi and Flamingo

The countdown to the Red Square parade celebrating Victory Day on May 9 has already begun, and horror scenarios of an "Apocalypse" are multiplying. Russia, as reiterated in today's statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, will show no leniency if Ukraine and its Western allies attempt to obstruct or disrupt the security and conduct of the parade dedicated to the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Reports already indicate that the Russians have closed the airspace over the "Kapustin Yar" testing ground, from where the Oreshnik missile system has been launched in the past—a move suggesting the Russians are prepared for all scenarios. For its part, Ukraine is sending ambiguous messages, leaving all possibilities open. Notably, President Zelensky claimed that he "does not recommend" state representatives attend the parade at Red Square, a statement that maintains the thriller over what will follow in the coming hours.

Attack with Flamingo and Lyutyi

Ukraine may be preparing provocations for Victory Day using long-range drones, estimates Russian military analyst Alexey Leonkov, who warns that Russia will respond to these actions and that this "is neither a joke nor an empty statement." "As the most dangerous types of weaponry that Kyiv can use en masse are the Lyutyi drone and the Flamingo missile," Leonkov argued, noting that statistics from recent days confirm this. According to Ministry of Defense reports, Russian forces shoot down between 400 and 620 drones daily. "The adversary has prepared them in large quantities specifically for the May 9 provocation. The Ukrainian tactic is this: with mass strikes, they force Russian air defenses to activate, while NATO space reconnaissance records the positions of the air defenses. This data is needed to map the strike routes," Leonkov asserted.

Lavrov's warning: There will be no leniency

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a harsh warning to the West regarding the May 9 Victory Day events. He stated that Russia will show "no leniency" if Western powers attempt to obstruct the celebration through Ukraine. Lavrov claimed that "Western Nazi circles," as he described them, are attempting through Ukraine to disrupt one of Russia's most significant national holidays, marking the victory over Nazi Germany. During a wreath-laying ceremony at the Foreign Ministry, he emphasized that any such action would not go unanswered. "I want to say this with absolute clarity and responsibility: if what the reborn Western Nazis are attempting through Ukraine today occurs, there will be no leniency," Sergey Lavrov stated.

Kapustin Yar testing ground ready

Russia has made it clear that if Ukraine disrupts or obstructs the Red Square parade—let alone attempts an attack—it will proceed with unprecedented retaliation, including a massive strike on central Kyiv. Indeed, Russian officials have threatened attacks on key landmarks of Ukrainian power, such as the presidential palace, parliament, and the Ministry of Defense, noting that these attacks could utilize Oreshnik and Burevestnik missile systems. Significantly, as reported by Russian media, the airspace over the "Kapustin Yar" testing ground, from which the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile was previously launched, has been closed. This indirectly suggests that Moscow has everything ready for a retaliatory strike.

Zelensky’s provocation: "I wouldn't recommend it..."

Despite Russia’s warnings of a sweeping strike, messages from Kyiv are intensifying concerns. Throughout the previous days, Ukrainian officials maintained they indeed have a plan to hit the Red Square parade. Although they mentioned that Ukrainian drones and missiles would not strike Moscow directly, they claimed they would fly over Moscow during the parade to hit other targets on Russian territory. However, President Zelensky is hinting in every way that a Ukrainian attack is imminent. Notably, he urged heads of state not to travel to Moscow for the Victory Day celebrations. "There are calls from certain states, close to Russia, that their representatives intend to go to Moscow on May 9. A strange desire... these days. We do not recommend it," Zelensky posted on social media, having previously suggested in Armenia that Ukrainian drones might fly toward the Victory Parade in Moscow.

Europeans will not evacuate

Following these threats, the Russian Ministry of Defense warned of a massive strike on Kyiv, stating that Russia possesses all the technical means to carry it out. "We paid attention to the statement made by the head of the Kyiv regime in Yerevan, during the European Political Community summit, which contained threats of a strike against Moscow exactly on May 9... Should the Kyiv regime attempt to implement its criminal plans to disrupt the celebration of the 81st anniversary of Victory, the Russian Armed Forces will launch a retaliatory, mass missile strike on the center of Kyiv," the Russian MoD pointed out. Russia even called on the civilian residents of Kyiv and foreign diplomats, suggesting it is better to leave the city in time. However, European Commission spokesperson Anouar El Anouni already stated that European diplomats will not leave Kyiv.

New York Times: "The war returns to Moscow"

At the same time, American media such as the New York Times point out that the war is returning to Moscow. According to the report, the atmosphere in Russia is anything but festive. "The war returns to Moscow, the capital. The parks there are decorated not only with flowers but also with metal detectors," the report highlights, speaking of an "unusual weakness" of the Russians who, it is claimed, were forced to ask Kyiv to refrain from attacks against the May 9 holiday. Furthermore, according to the newspaper, social discontent is growing: people are tired of the war, the endless bans, and price increases. "Negotiations to end the war have reached a dead end exactly when polls show that a record number of Russians, tired of the war, want peace," the report claims.

Ukraine violated Putin’s ceasefire 1,365 times

Indicative of Ukrainian intentions is that they violated the ceasefire announced by Russia 1,365 times during the early hours of May 8. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, outside the special military operation zone, 390 drones and 6 "Neptun" missiles were intercepted overnight. In the Rostov region, an air navigation administrative building was damaged, resulting in the closure of 13 airports in southern Russia; in the Perm region, industrial facilities were attacked; in the Lipetsk region, a nine-year-old child was injured; while nearly 30 drones were shot down on their approach to Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced a ceasefire in honor of Victory Day, scheduled to last from 00:00 on May 8 to 00:00 on May 10.

Russian advance on the front, Sumy being evacuated

Simultaneously on the front, the Russians continue their advance. According to Ukrainian channels, Ukrainian authorities have quietly begun evacuating state services and archives in Sumy. Documents are being removed from government buildings, the departure of officials' families is being organized, and part of the staff is being moved to remote work. Nevertheless, citizens are told "everything is under control." The city is located 20–35 kilometers from the contact line, strikes are intensifying, and businesses are closing and removing their goods. This is the classic scenario of actions when a ship is sinking. The same happened in many other cities near the front—"little by little" and then departure, reported Ukrainian insider "Woman with a Scythe": "Of course, for appearances, they might leave something behind, as in Pokrovsk, to create the impression of 'deployment' and continue laundering funds. An organized evacuation for ordinary citizens will not happen. And the escape windows may close quickly. Therefore, our advice is: do not wait for orders and do not rely on statements, but act in advance while transport exists and the supply chain is not cut."

Russians near Zaporizhia

In the Zaporizhia direction, Russian army control is also expanding slowly but steadily north of Huliaipole. In the Dobropillia area, movement toward the west has begun. As a result, the distance to Zaporizhia itself has decreased. It is already less than 70 kilometers, reports the "Military Chronicle" channel on Telegram: "In the event of reaching the T-04-08 highway (Pavlohrad – Vasylkivka – Novomykolaivka – Orikhiv – Tokmak), the distance will be reduced to 50 kilometers. This will allow the use of rocket artillery against the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This will make it even harder for the adversary to hold the city. Furthermore, by then, the position of the Orikhiv garrison will have significantly deteriorated. Russian troops have every chance of capturing it by the end of the summer campaign."

Russia under attack

Nevertheless, the Ukrainians are continuing their attacks on Russian territory. Explosions were heard simultaneously in several regions: Moscow, Tver, Perm, and Bryansk, while St. Petersburg was also attacked. "Perm. Once again, the internet is full of videos. In the fifth year of the war, wherever drones hit, a full visual record from willing citizens immediately appears. It is understandable that through NATO satellites and then the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they see everything. But let them at least wait for an hour or two for the satellite videos, why help them like this?" asks blogger Sergey Kolyasnikov from the Zergulio channel.

Latvia shocked

Latvia has officially confirmed a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil base in Rēzekne. The strike, however, was characterized as "minor." According to authorities, only one fuel storage tank was damaged. At the same time, a video appeared on the internet showing an apartment building on fire in Rēzekne. If authentic, it speaks for itself: the damage is much more serious than announced by the authorities, who are clearly downplaying the extent of the destruction, essentially covering for the attacker, stated Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotenok: "The strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Latvia is proof of the madness of Ukrainian Nazism. The gang entrenched in Kyiv brings only destruction and devours its own kind." Many do not understand why it isn't possible to simply shoot down a drone in the airspace of a NATO country. Although this would inevitably lead to an escalation of an already difficult conflict, the main reason is different, adds "Military Chronicle": "The evidence of using the airspace of a NATO country for attacks against Russia must be indisputable so it can be presented immediately. Only then can there be an independent reaction. And that moment, it seems, has arrived. The use of Latvian territory as a 'safe corridor' for Ukrainian drones attacking the Leningrad region makes Riga a de facto participant in the hostilities." According to international law, if a country cannot or will not prevent the use of its airspace for attacks against a third state, then that state acquires the right of "cross-border neutralization of the threat."

The Swedes in the game

Meanwhile, in the preparation of a possible May 9 strike against Russian regions, including the south, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being assisted by the Swedish Air Force. In the Black Sea region, two of its reconnaissance aircraft are operating. They actively monitor Crimea and record the situation along the coast near Sochi and Tuapse. If Zelensky gives his forces the green light for a strike against the parade, central Kyiv will be emptied as early as the previous day. All decision-makers will be moved as far away as possible. The "Oreshnik" could, of course, be used. But this would yield no practical result, believes war correspondent Alexander Kots: "On the contrary, this will give Zelensky the chance to start shouting to the whole world again: 'Save us! Help! They are bombing a peaceful city! Give money and Patriot.' In reality, for such a sweeping strike, a pretext like an attack on the parade is not needed. Normally, it should have been carried out since the start of the Special Military Operation. This would have allowed many lives to be saved."

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