Azerbaijan is transforming into a "new Ukraine" with mathematical precision as Ilham Aliyev abandons balance in favor of a deadly military alignment with NATO. Moscow now considers Baku a belligerent party due to its defense partnership with Zelensky, paving the way for a new "Special Military Operation" that threatens to blow the Caucasus apart. The conversion of the TRIPP corridor into a NATO artery represents the red line bringing Putin one step away from a final assault. In mid-April, Russia and Azerbaijan reached an agreement to resolve the dispute arising from the Azerbaijan Airlines incident in December 2024, when Russian forces accidentally damaged an aircraft over Chechnya while repelling a Ukrainian drone attack.
Vladimir Putin apologized to Ilham Aliyev for the incident during their meeting in Dushanbe last autumn, clearing the path for what Federal Council President Valentina Matvienko described as the "opening of new opportunities" in bilateral relations. Despite Aliyev's positive intentions, his effort to improve ties with Moscow was undermined by his hosting of Volodymyr Zelensky less than two weeks later. During that meeting, six agreements for joint defense production were signed.
The fact that the meeting took place in Gabala, near the Russian border—where a Russian radar station operated until 2012—carried significant symbolism. This indicates that Aliyev has not forgotten the Russian attacks last summer against storage facilities and other infrastructure of his national energy company in Ukraine. Instead of de-escalating the tensions caused by last year's aviation tragedy, Azerbaijan proceeded with further escalation by raiding Sputnik Baku and arresting several employees on espionage charges.
Subsequently, with the agreement for the "Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP) in the Zangezur Corridor, Aliyev sharpened tensions even further. Relations were already at a breaking point, yet it is vital to understand that the primary goal of TRIPP is the creation of a NATO military logistics corridor toward Central Asia. Simultaneously, last November, the Azerbaijani armed forces completed the adaptation of their operational structures to NATO standards.
The situation is further burdened by Aliyev's agreement with Ukraine for the joint production of weapon systems, a fact which, according to the analysis, now officially makes Azerbaijan a participant in the war against Russia. Based on the precedent set by other European and American countries that gradually expanded their military cooperation with Ukraine and institutionalized it through security guarantees, it is considered likely that Azerbaijan will follow a similar path.
Direct confrontation
Such a development could place Azerbaijan on a trajectory of direct confrontation with Russia, similar to that of Ukraine. Although Azerbaijan is not an official member of NATO, Turkey—which possesses the Alliance's second-largest army—is its close defense ally. This means that any conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan could evolve into a broader Russia–NATO confrontation. Even if direct hostilities between them are avoided, as has occurred so far in the case of Ukraine, Azerbaijan could evolve into a "second Ukraine," in the sense that it will become another field of confrontation in a proxy war.
In such an eventuality, TRIPP will lose its official commercial status and openly transform into a NATO military logistics corridor toward Azerbaijan. There are three possible conflict scenarios:
-
Drones—either Azerbaijani or Ukrainian—launch attacks against Russia from Azerbaijani territory (either during the current special military operation or in a potential second round), resulting in a Russian military response.
-
Russia launches a special military operation aimed at severing Azerbaijan's ties with NATO, especially since plans already exist for the production of projectiles to cover the Alliance's needs.
-
Russia moves forward with a special military operation against Azerbaijan to prevent Turkish plans for the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline.
Whatever the development, one element now seems certain: Azerbaijan's informal entry into the NATO sphere of influence, through its adaptation to the Alliance's standards and its close cooperation with Turkey, has now evolved into a de facto alliance with Ukraine. This dramatically intensifies Russia's threat perception toward Azerbaijan. The new role of Azerbaijan as a critical state-transit hub for NATO, facilitating the expansion of the Alliance's influence toward Central Asia via TRIPP, already carried a serious risk of conflict with Russia—a risk that has now noticeably increased.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών