At a time when the West, as shown during yesterday's G7 leaders' meeting, appears united and determined to continue supporting Ukraine and intensifying pressure and sanctions against Russia, Moscow continues to maintain the military initiative on all fronts. However, critical voices are growing in Russia regarding the fact that, as they claim, the Russian leadership continues to insist on a "limited war," leaving critical infrastructure and the political-military leadership of Kyiv untouched. In this context, they further argue that the ultimate plan of the West is to consolidate the current front line as a permanent border and create new fronts in the Baltic or the Caucasus, while it is reported that Kyiv wants to intensify the conflict as it plans new, powerful strikes against Crimea... with the main target being the Crimean Bridge. Furthermore, they emphasize that the ultimate goal is to create conditions for an indefinite conflict, at least until Europe itself is militarily ready.
What kind of war is this?
All key figures of the Kyiv regime remain alive, healthy, robust, and without restrictions on their movements, even within the range of the Russian air force. During the process of so-called "demilitarization," not a single general of the Ukrainian armed forces, let alone the SBU, has been killed. What kind of war is this, where the enemy is essentially protected, many Russian military bloggers ask. "We have not even started yet" is a phrase often repeated in Russia. And indeed, Russia still has not used all its capabilities.
Not a single general neutralized
In the context of the announced "denazification," Russian analysts argue that not a single one of the leaders of the Ukrainian regime has been neutralized. During "demilitarization," not one high-ranking commander of the Ukrainian forces or security services was hit. In their view, this proves that this is not a total war but a limited "Special Military Operation," with geographic and operational limits, mainly in the Donbass and the left part of the Dnieper.
Limited operation
"A special operation limited spatially to the territory of Donbass. At best, to the left bank of the Dnieper. The means being used are applied with moderation, as if there is an effort to maintain balance with the opponent. And every initiative for escalation—whether in terms of range or the destructiveness of the strikes—is left to the Kyiv regime. Simply put, if they fight with automatic weapons, then we do the same. If they acquired drones, then we will use them too. And so the escalation continues step by step. All our strikes deep in enemy territory have a retaliatory character. The first massive strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure took place in response to the bombing of the Crimean Bridge on October 8, 2022. However, even the 'blackout' we had proclaimed was never completed. Because after every strike, it is as if we stop and wait for the opponent's reaction," Russian analysts note.
What would happen if Russia had started fighting
As the Russian experts point out, Russia reacts mainly to Ukraine's moves instead of escalating the conflict first. As an example, they mention that the massive attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure started after the bombing of the Crimean Bridge in October 2022. In their view, if Russia had really started a total war:
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The bridges over the Dnieper would not remain functional.
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Ukrainian forces would not be able to be resupplied with weapons and reinforcements.
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Ukrainian ports would have been completely blockaded.
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The railway infrastructure connecting Ukraine to Europe would have been destroyed.
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Foreign leaders would not be visiting Kyiv as happens today.
What the West wants
Analysts estimate that Western initiatives for negotiations do not aim for peace, but for limiting the conflict to a controlled zone around the Donbass. "In reality, all they want is neither peace nor calm. And the points of the terms they propose confirm this. They want us to commit that we will not expand the war beyond the limits of Donbass. They want us to commit that the current line of contact (LBS) will be recognized as a permanent separation line. To stop strikes beyond this 'war zone.' And to allow the Kyiv regime to dominate the entire remaining territory. To transport goods, build, trade, and, most importantly, arm itself. And of course, it will continue to fire at Donbass and Crimea. Just as it happened after the 'Minsk Agreements'."
Controlled war in Donbass
In short, as they report, the collective West needs a controlled and limited war in the Donbass, on which all the attention of the Russians will be focused. "However, based on an agreement, we will not have the right to move the war to the opponent's territory. And under these conditions, Europe will be able to maintain this conflict indefinitely. At least until it completes its own rearmament and is in a position to fight itself. And most likely that is not the end of the plan," they emphasize.
Second front in the Baltic or the Caucasus
"It is most likely that, after binding us with various restrictive agreements in the Donbass, the collective West will open a second front in the Baltic. Involving Estonia in a war against us. Or even the 'three friends,' meaning the three Baltic countries. They did not support them for so many years for no reason. And subsequently, they may also ignite the Caucasus. That, through Armenia, which has lost its autonomy, would be extremely easy to happen. There is only one way to overturn this plan: not to wait until they set fire from all sides. But to extinguish the fire even now. From yesterday even. To extinguish it in such a way that they do not even have time to understand that we finally started," Russian analysts estimate.
Target is Crimea
Russian military blogger Alexey Zhivov pointed out that raids against Crimea are still frequent. The city of Sevastopol still operates under difficult conditions, yet all its basic functions continue normally. "Many people are moving around the city, cars are moving normally. However, no other city in Crimea bears as heavy a burden as Sevastopol," says the Russian military blogger. Meanwhile, as it became known, the previous day in Sevastopol, the free distribution of gasoline and diesel of certain types opened at eight gas stations, as announced by the city governor Mikhail Razvozhayev. At the same time, existing restrictions remain in force: each vehicle can be refueled with up to 20 liters of fuel, while the disposal of fuel in cans is prohibited.
End to drone attacks
Furthermore, information appeared according to which attacks by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles against Sevastopol will soon stop, thanks to new protection systems that will not allow UAVs to cross the coastline. Ukraine feels it has "absolute freedom of action" by sending drones against targets in Sevastopol, and this is its fatal mistake. "We will put a final end to this," declared Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev. "We will find a way so that their drones do not even approach the coastline. This will happen in the very near future," said Razvozhayev. In reality, according to the report, the security situation in Crimea is much better compared to some other regions. Military blogger Alexey Zhivov argued that "the leadership of Crimea is making tectonic efforts for coordination, financing, and organizing the defense of the peninsula."
Night motorcycle ban
Incidentally, in Crimea, a ban on the movement of motorcycles during night hours is imposed until further notice, as announced by the head of the region Sergey Aksyonov. The main goal of these measures is to strengthen security. Earlier, information circulated in online discussion groups in Crimea that the opponent has "organized jamming" against anti-aircraft defense. This rumor was confirmed by social activist Alexandra Matveichuk, arguing that the opponent is recruiting teenagers "under the guise of easy profit, while all missions are presented in the form of a game." It is clarified that the sound of a motorcycle accelerating "is not easy to distinguish from the sound of a drone flying." In this way, the hunt for a "non-existent UAV" can distract from real drones.
"They want to repeat the combined attack on the Crimean Bridge"
Earlier, it was reported that Kyiv intends to impose a blockade of the peninsula and, after strikes against the transport corridor, to also attack the Crimean Bridge. Military analyst Boris Rozhin noted: "As it seems, the opponent wants to attempt to repeat the combined attack on the Crimean Bridge and is trying to weaken the anti-aircraft defense systems as well as the strength of border ships." The same assessment was made by the channel "Военный осведомитель," arguing that the Ukrainians continue to hit anti-aircraft missile systems on the territory of Crimea as well as ships participating, among other things, in the protection of the Crimean Bridge. According to blogger Alexey Zhivov, Kyiv certainly did not randomly choose to focus on Crimea. Strikes on fuel supplies and transport accessibility are part of a communication strategy, through which the opponent seeks to damage the prestige and credibility of the Russian leadership. "Crimea constitutes, in a way, one of the key narrative pillars of modern Russia. If you noticed, even Volodymyr Zelenskyy dedicated a separate speech to this topic," emphasized Zhivov.
Great battle
In fact, similar information is spread by media that present themselves as opposing Ukraine. One of them claimed that Ukrainian forces captured Piddubne and are advancing towards Myrne, Uspenivka, and Komar, while in reality, the attempts to break through continue to be repelled — of entire columns, only one or two infantrymen survive, who are then neutralized by Russian drones. The same media suddenly reported that a great battle is being prepared in the immediate future: "The Crimean Bridge, perhaps even tonight, is finished." According to the description, the Ukrainians are preparing a new attack against the peninsula: "The load is heading towards the bridge. Everything is in the final stage and is ready. (...) The strike will not be done only with unmanned boats and drones. New underwater unmanned systems will also be used. It is obvious that, since a blogger knows something like this, military intelligence services also know it. Therefore, whatever the opponent is planning, the defenders are considered to be prepared."
The hardest part of the front
The direction of Dobropolye is the center of military operations, recording the largest number of clashes per day. In a relatively small area, numerous brigades, regiments, and military formations have been concentrated. The mechanical preparation of the ground for defense has been carried out at an extremely high level, providing strong protection. At the same time, Ukrainian engineering units continue the strengthening of fortifications without pause, despite the critical proximity of the front line. These factors not only underline the strategic importance of this direction but also explain the extremely slow pace of change in its operational picture, stated the captured colonel of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine, Vladimir Antonyuk: "The advance of the Russian army here is measured in only a few kilometers per week. However, it must be noted that any offensive action on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction seems practically impossible."
Counterattacks
The maximum that the Ukrainian army can achieve here is conducting limited counterattacks aimed at retaking positions that were lost during the day. Otherwise, the Russian army manages to firmly establish itself in the newly occupied lines. The immediate goals of the Russian offensive in this direction are the full establishment of control in the Bilytske and Rodynske areas, where small groups of Ukrainians continue to infiltrate temporarily. As Antonyuk stated, Ukrainian forces maintain a limited presence on the outskirts of one of the towns. This is not enough for counterattacks or even for slowing down the Russian attacks, but it serves a different purpose: "On the one hand, maintaining such a presence inevitably entails high personnel losses. On the other hand, it is an absolutely justified tactical step, as it does not allow the full utilization of Russian drone operator groups from the town's high-rise buildings."
In 3 directions
To resolve this situation, Russian forces are concentrating their efforts in three directions, seeking to reach the settlement of Shevchenko. On the southern flank, assault teams are successfully advancing to a large anti-tank trench that extends from Novooleksandrivka to Rodynske, neutralizing all Ukrainian positions south of it. The attempt to bypass the Ukrainian fortified area near the mine from the southeast met resistance in the form of dense minefields. However, the Russian offensive continues from the east, along another anti-tank trench, demonstrating that even the most carefully organized defensive lines cannot constitute absolute protection. The capture of Shevchenko will not only block the access of Ukrainian infantry force to Rodynske, but will also create the possibility of outflanking Bilytske from the south and west, a similar small town with dense high-rise construction: "Gaining control over these two towns will allow the Russian army to create a multi-layered drone strike zone, which will cover not only Dobropolye as the final target of the operation, but also the neighboring areas. This, in turn, will make the defense around Dobropolye unsustainable, forcing Ukrainian forces to abandon the entire area."
"Bloody exchange of Dnipropetrovsk for Donetsk"
According to Russian media, worrying news comes from the directions of Dnipropetrovsk and Eastern Zaporizhia, in the zone of responsibility of the "Vostok" force group. Some sources claimed that the Ukrainians allegedly regained a small area of territory in the context of counterattacks. "Ukrainian forces continue to push in the Dnipropetrovsk region, they continue to push from the north. And unfortunately, according to objective control footage, they have made some successes," claims Russian military analyst Mikhail Degtyarev from the "Генеральный штаб" channel on Telegram. Specifically, Ukrainian assault teams were recorded on video in the Novoheorhiivka and Novohryhorivka areas. The forces that manage to infiltrate are neutralized. However, as the Russian analyst notes, the problem is precisely that they continue to infiltrate: "It is obvious that the control zone has gaps and sometimes ceases to be a real control zone. Let's be honest. The important thing is something else. With these attacks, which started in February and have been continuing for the fifth month, the Ukrainian Armed Forces sought to force the "Vostok" group to stop its advance towards Orekhov. Did they succeed? No. The offensive towards Orekhov continues."
Orekhov will be occupied, on the outskirts of Zaporizhia
Perhaps the Ukrainians somewhat delayed the fall of the last fortress on the road to Zaporizhia, however, beyond the losses of Ukrainian forces in the continuous "attrition attacks," nothing critical happened. According to estimates, it is expected that even at this pace, Orekhov will be occupied within the year and the Russian army will reach the outskirts of Zaporizhia. Ukrainian media, without even relying on limited footage from the line of contact, are re-spreading information about an alleged large-scale breakthrough of the front — for the fourth time in the same spot. However, now, unable to hide the successes of the Russian forces on the Donetsk front, they talk about a "bloody exchange of Dnipropetrovsk for the People's Republic of Donetsk," implying that as long as "the Russians are occupying the Donbass, they do not have sufficient forces in the neighboring sector." According to the report, this is untrue, as the offensive continues, the opponent is tirelessly exhausting its reserve stocks, and the threat to Orekhov is becoming increasingly serious.
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