The approval of the mammoth 70 billion euro package for Ukraine, which is expected to be discussed at the NATO Summit in Ankara, remains in a gray zone.
One of the most critical and highly debated issues of the upcoming NATO Summit, which is scheduled to take place in Ankara on July 7-8, is the final approval of a giant military assistance program for Ukraine, which reaches the astronomical amount of 70 billion euros.
The funding depends on the voluntary contributions of member states, at a time when Slovakia is withdrawing and Donald Trump's stance keeps the USA away from providing aid.
The preparation of the decision and the statements of European leaders
Consultations behind closed doors are intense, as this specific package aims to ensure the long-term stability of the country, yet its implementation faces serious political and legal hurdles.
The processes for this specific plan have been underway for weeks, while recently the existence and the amount of the sum were officially confirmed by the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico.
Robert Fico revealed that the final declaration of the Summit may include an explicit commitment by the allies for the annual provision of military support amounting to approximately 70 billion euros to Kyiv, spanning several years.
At the same time, however, he immediately clarified his own country's stance, emphasizing that Slovakia is not going to contribute financially to this specific fund.
For his part, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hinted that the European allies within the North Atlantic Alliance are ready to offer Kyiv a "strong and stable financial commitment" during the Summit, avoiding, however, entering into further technical details or confirming the exact numbers.
The origin of the funds and the distribution of the package: The 40-30 trap
The proposed 70 billion euro package does not represent entirely new, additional funds.
Instead, it is a combination of already approved resources and new bilateral agreements.
More specifically, 30 billion euros come from the already agreed two-year loan of the European Union to Ukraine, which totals 90 billion euros.
The remaining 40 billion euros are planned to be covered through new, direct bilateral commitments to be undertaken individually by the member states of the Alliance.
The main objective of this joint announcement is to give a more mandatory character to the direct bilateral aid provided by NATO states to Kyiv.
In this way, the goal is to ensure that countries will offer additional resources, over and above the large 90 billion loan that has already been set in motion by the European Union.
The legal loophole and the precedent with defense spending
An extremely critical detail that must not be overlooked is that decisions taken at a NATO Summit do not have legally binding force for domestic governments.
The final approval and the actual disbursement of funds remain the exclusive competence and sovereign right of the government and parliament of each individual country.
This fact brings back memories of previous declarations by the Alliance.
In the past, leaders had agreed to increase their national defense spending initially to 2% and later to 5% of their domestic GDP.
Despite the official signatures, many NATO member countries remain unable to this day to hit even the first, lower target of 2%.
Consequently, whether Ukraine will ultimately receive the additional 40 billion euros depends exclusively on the political will of each respective government to fulfill its promise.
The catalytic role of the USA and the Donald Trump factor
Within this complex puzzle, the most decisive factor remains the stance of Washington.
The United States has not provided any substantial financial or military aid to Ukraine since last year, creating a huge gap.
Many analysts estimate that this ambitious 70 billion euro plan, which is being heavily promoted by the Ukrainian leadership and a group of European states, has as its primary goal to force the American side to actively return to Kyiv's funding table.
However, the success of this strategy remains completely up in the air.
It is still entirely unclear how the head of the White House, Donald Trump, will react to this pressure, as throughout his term he is personally credited with and prides himself on the drastic reduction and termination of exorbitant American spending toward Ukraine.
Thus, this plan looks like a "trap" where Washington distances itself and leaves the Europeans alone to pay for an endless conflict, since more and more recognize that no matter how much money is given, the situation does not change, and NATO - EU are simply prolonging a lost cause, wasting the resources of their citizens.
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