Scenarios concerning a potential meeting between the presidents of the US, Donald Trump, and Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, on the sidelines of the proceedings of the UN General Assembly have been circulating behind the scenes in recent hours, in a final effort to revive negotiations between the two sides.
Although Donald Trump has declared that he is ready to meet with Masoud Pezeshkian, characterizing such a meeting as... probable, this prospect has largely been dismissed by the Iranian side given the power structure...
Nevertheless, the statement of an Iranian official that Tehran is prepared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days, on the condition that the US lifts its naval blockade and reduces its military pressure, comes to open... a «window of opportunity» that had remained hermetically sealed until now, as reports indicate that the Iranian diplomatic mission holds authorization to revive talks with the Americans.
Still, several analysts appear particularly pessimistic, assessing that this is a scenario that is... rather improbable, arguing that thus far nothing in the war with Iran has been resolved through diplomacy...
Donald Trump declares readiness...
Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News, stated that he is «ready» to meet with Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the summit, even characterizing such a meeting as «probable».
However, this unilateral declaration of readiness has met with no official reciprocation from the Iranian side.
Reports indicate that the power structure in Iran appears to place serious obstacles in the way of such an encounter.
Under these circumstances, analysts point to three possible scenarios:
First scenario: Official and public meeting
In this case, Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump would meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, and the meeting could be regarded as a turning point in relations between the two countries.
Proponents of this possibility argue that «a hundred meetings and negotiations are better than one day of war» and that a meeting with the supreme political authority of the US could pave the way for ending the war and for a new chapter in bilateral ties.
In this context, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, former chairman of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament, underscored the necessity of negotiations, stating that «when the signatures of Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump stand beneath an agreement, that implies there is no ban on negotiations between Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump either».
Certain reformists also support this scenario and are attempting to bolster its likelihood.
Second scenario: Informal meeting, exchange of messages, or brief conversation
In this case, an encounter could take place in the corridors of the UN, a brief conversation without official protocol, or a direct exchange of messages.
From a diplomatic perspective, this option is considered lower risk, as it does not necessarily require authorization from the upper echelons of power for an «official meeting» and could serve as a «trial» to evaluate reactions.
Third scenario: No meeting
In this case, the two sides will both be present in New York, but without any direct contact occurring between them.
The spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs had previously dismissed the prospect of requesting negotiations with the US and had insisted on the principle of «commitment for commitment».
Conservative media outlets and outlets affiliated with Iranian state broadcasting have likewise reported that «the likelihood of an encounter and dialogue between Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian is deemed very low».
Many in Iran, particularly conservative and ideologically driven factions, oppose a meeting between Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump, as they view Donald Trump as a war criminal and responsible for the death of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution.
Everything open, but...
Analysts assess that the scenario of no meeting taking place is presented as the most likely, although it is noted that a brief and informal contact cannot be entirely ruled out.
As they report, within the power structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, «no negotiation with the US is permitted without the authorization of the leadership» and any communication must occur within a predetermined framework.
A meeting with the President of the United States at head-of-state level is considered a strategic decision that exceeds the personal competencies of Masoud Pezeshkian.
Moreover, it is highlighted that corresponding permission «had not been granted in the past either to Mohammad Khatami or to Hassan Rouhani».
The 7 conditions set by Iran
Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, has stated that Tehran has communicated seven conditions to the United States for the initiation of any negotiations.
Among these are included the unfreezing of frozen assets, the end of the war on all fronts, the cessation of every form of attack against Iranian territory, and the lifting of the naval blockade.
Until these conditions are met, «there will be no room for a return to prior negotiating terms».
Consequently, even if Donald Trump desires a meeting, it is assessed that Tehran may avoid such contact until these specific conditions are satisfied.
Opposition from conservative and ideological groups
Certain hardliners of the conservative Iranian camp have fiercely condemned any meeting or negotiation with the President of the United States.
One lawmaker also warned that such an encounter would be a «meeting with the murderer of the martyred Imam and thousands of Iranians», asking: «what would be the benefit of such a meeting?».
As highlighted, these pressures render the domestic political climate exceptionally difficult for Masoud Pezeshkian should he decide to accept an invitation from Donald Trump.
Donald Trump's dual approach
Alongside his declaration that he is ready for a meeting, Donald Trump has also kept threatening options on the table, stating that he is examining alternatives such as «wiping out Iran», «leaving it to economic decay», or «reaching an agreement».
This dual approach undermines the trust that would be essential for a constructive meeting.
Masoud Pezeshkian has likewise warned that «we must not ignore the deception or the calculations of the other side, because under certain conditions peace can turn into a tool for delivering a blow».
Reuters: The Iranian delegation in New York has full authorization to revive diplomacy with the US
Reuters, citing on Tuesday an individual it presented as a senior Iranian official, reported that if Washington proceeds with tangible steps to de-escalate tension, Tehran will re-examine the diplomatic track.
Kyodo: New proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz submitted to the US
According to Kyodo News, the new proposal from Iran has been approved by the country's leadership and the Supreme National Security Council.
A senior official of the Iranian government told the Japanese agency that Iran is ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, provided the United States takes initial steps to reduce military pressure.
According to Kyodo News, this proposal forms part of Tehran's intensifying efforts to revive negotiations with Washington.
Luciano Zaccara (analyst): Nothing has been resolved in Iran through diplomacy
«There is a major debate regarding whether the UN has any utility or not», stated Luciano Zaccara, analyst and assistant professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, speaking to Al Jazeera, adding: «the situation is far more complicated than it was a year ago; we have a war that has lasted more than six months, nothing has been resolved through diplomatic means thus far, aside from very brief truces».
Luciano Zaccara stated that he is «not optimistic» regarding the prospect that bilateral talks could lead to «peace in any of the conflicts» in the Middle East, because he assesses that the participants will merely «reaffirm the positions they already hold».
«Naturally, Masoud Pezeshkian will go there reaffirming Iran's will to resist and not yield to US impositions, and I do not anticipate that Donald Trump will deliver any speech that will alter anything from what he is already doing», stated Luciano Zaccara.
Emmanuel Macron: We will cooperate with the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
President of France Emmanuel Macron stated that he had a «very productive» discussion with Donald Trump, which, as he noted, allowed them to discuss both the crisis in the Middle East and their determination to do everything possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enable the flow of goods.
Donald Trump: Today I will have meetings on Iran
US President Donald Trump reiterated his positions regarding Iran and deterring the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by Tehran, stating: «Today I will have meetings on Iran».
Donald Trump finds himself under pressure from public opinion inside and outside the United States due to the economic fallout of the war with Iran.
Donald Trump is scheduled to meet today, Tuesday, September 22, with leaders of Arab states of the Persian Gulf, in order to discuss the next phase of the war with Iran, according to what two American officials told CNN.
Abbas Araghchi: Our primary objective in New York is defending the rights of the Iranian people
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, at the outset of his journey to New York, stated:
«Our most significant objective is our presence on a major international stage, in order to defend justice, the rights, and the interests of the Iranian people».
The Wall Street Journal: Next steps in the Iran war reviewed at Camp David... the war is unpopular...
The next steps in the war with Iran were reviewed at Camp David, and the conclusion is that the war is unpopular... with Americans.
Twenty months have passed since the beginning of the second term of Donald Trump, but he is not achieving what he wants and, according to advisors, administration officials, and others close to the president, he is not pleased with the situation.
Donald Trump has been complaining about media coverage of his administration in recent months, both publicly and in private.
However, frustration peaked when one of his closest aides showed him clips of hosts on the cable network MS NOW criticizing his administration.
Hours later, Donald Trump barred the network and two other news organizations from entry to the White House.
Donald Trump has told his aides behind closed doors that he lacks sufficient political allies to defend him on television and explain the achievements of his second term.
The president has been briefed on the challenges facing Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections.
His advisors have told him that the war in Iran has diminished conservative enthusiasm for the elections.
Donald Trump's decision to ban access for MS NOW, CNN, and Politico to the White House surprised many White House officials.
Nevertheless, presidential aides swiftly executed his order, barring journalists from those media outlets from entering the White House.
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