The West is attempting to cultivate a reservoir of disgruntled anti-regime actors with the aim of influencing the 2030 presidential elections in Belarus through extensive "profiling" of the opposition, as revealed by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). The ultimate goal is to weaken the alliance between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin and to influence developments on the Ukrainian front.
Plan for the destabilization of Belarus
Non-governmental organizations in Western countries are accumulating resources in order to re-attempt the destabilization of the situation in Belarus and a change in the constitutional order, according to an SVR statement. According to the Russian intelligence service, organizations and foundations active in the field of "democratization" in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Poland, and other European countries are involved in these actions.
Goal: The 2030 presidential elections
The West, according to the SVR, seeks to form a core of dissatisfied opposition figures for the purpose of influencing the 2030 presidential elections. Western plans include a full "inventory" of members of the Belarusian opposition and an assessment of their potential to participate in subversive activities. The objective is to create a group of individuals "harboring resentment toward Alexander Lukashenko" to be utilized for political interference in the future electoral process.
"Immunity" of Belarusian society
The SVR argues that the West ignores the fact that Belarusian society, having overcome the internal political crisis of 2020—which, according to Moscow, was instigated by hostile foreign powers—has developed strong immunity against attempts at destabilization. As stated in the announcement, Belarusians have before them the examples of Ukraine, Moldova, and many other countries that were "destroyed in the name of Western geopolitical ambitions, under the pretext of false slogans about democracy and human rights."
Aiming to weaken the Minsk–Moscow axis
Finally, the SVR estimates that the West seeks to weaken the strategic partnership between Minsk and Moscow within the framework of the Union State and to hinder the achievement of the goals of the special military operation.
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