A politician with vast experience who is obviously well known, along with a poll conducted for a newly formed party, serve as the sources for the text below. The general conclusion is that ND, despite declining in the polls—with some showing it below 25%, which is the threshold for triggering the seat bonus—will ultimately surpass 25%; this is also the conviction within Tsipras's campaign staff.
The main assessments
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ND and Mitsotakis have exhausted the public, and people now realize that Mitsotakis has become a heavy drag on ND, lacking the momentum of 2019 or 2023; the abundance of scandals and the sense that the government consists of "locusts consuming public money and producing scandals rather than progress for the country" are clearly causing damage. The Mitsotakis government, especially in its second four-year term, has been a dark page; they failed to produce anything substantial and instead sought to enrich themselves by robbing the state. This is what the average Greek citizen believes, and it represents a common assessment held by the majority. However, when it comes time for the ballot box, the ND voter who currently dismisses Mitsotakis will go and vote for him again under the rationale that he is better than the rest. In this context, the battle will be fought so that ND exceeds the 25% seat bonus threshold, targeting 27% to 28%, although 26% remains more realistic.
The big surprise comes from the Patriotic Space with 4 parties at 6% each
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The major surprise will not come from Tsipras's ELAS. The political Left has collapsed in Greece, so Tsipras appears to be the most serious figure among the minor leaders of the Left, making it reasonable for him to unite left-wing voters with a target around 20%, ranging from 18% to 20%. The big surprise will come from the Patriotic Space.
What does this mean?
A polling firm is measuring these trends through rolling surveys, and the findings are noteworthy.
It finds the Samaras Party at 6% to 8%.
The Karystianou movement at 6% to 7%.
Velopoulos at 6%.
The Kasidiaris Party at 5% to 6%.
Latinopoulou at 2.5% to 3%.
Other patriotic parties at 1%.
Total sum: 28%.
Conclusion
The largest political force in Greece will emerge as the patriotic space that once voted for ND... It appears that ND will cross 25%, and Tsipras will become the main official opposition. PASOK is moving around 10% and has permanently lost all its former luster, now standing as an outdated party.
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