Hezbollah is seeking to conceal most of its strategic weapons in tunnels and shelters beneath residential buildings in the Shiite suburbs of southern Beirut.
In the event of a new conflict, the organization is ready to launch hundreds of rockets, guided missiles, and suicide drones against Israel, according to a Ynet report on December 16, citing Israeli defense and intelligence officials.
War mobilization and ultimatums
This report comes as Israel is reportedly preparing for a new war with Lebanon, more than a year after the ceasefire achieved with US mediation.
In an interview earlier this month, Lebanon’s Foreign Minister, Youssef Rajji, revealed to Al Jazeera that Beirut had received warnings from Arab and international actors that Israel is preparing a large-scale operation against Hezbollah.
At the same time, Israel’s public broadcaster Kan reported that the Israeli military has completed preparations in recent weeks for an attack, should the Lebanese government and army fail to honor their pledge to disarm the organization before the end of the year.
Assassinations and escalation on the front
The Israeli military continued to strike Hezbollah positions and members even after the ceasefire began on November 27 last year.
Last month, the situation escalated dangerously with the assassination of the group’s top military commander, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, in Beirut.
Even one day before the Ynet report, the army targeted an alleged member of the organization in the southern Lebanese city of Taybeh.
According to the report, Hezbollah may have been “weakened” by the last confrontation, but it remains “heavily armed”.
Donald Trump’s “green light” and internal fractures
Defense officials told Ynet that no operation will begin without the consent of US President Donald Trump.
This makes any action unlikely before the scheduled visit of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House later this month.
At the same time, Israeli intelligence assesses that Hezbollah currently prefers to “swallow” the daily airstrikes rather than escalate, focusing on internal power struggles it considers more manageable.
“We are seeing more and more Shiite supporters turning toward Amal, the rival movement,” officials said, adding that the organization is failing to support the thousands of bereaved families and the many wounded.
Disarmament or total war?
Officials predict that Hezbollah will continue to regroup, mainly through domestic production and the conversion of existing rockets into precision-guided missiles.
“We must continue to confront it at any cost,” one official said.
As discussions over disarmament become more tangible and pressure for the use of force increases, the group is expected to become more aggressive.
Hezbollah will not disarm voluntarily, while the Lebanese army maintains a neutral stance.
The involvement of Iran and international powers
While the Lebanese army has in recent days attempted to enforce security in the south, even organizing a diplomatic tour along the border, Iran makes it clear that its support is non-negotiable.
Ali Akbar Velayati, adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, stressed that Tehran will continue to support the organization unwaveringly.
Reports indicate that Iran has recently increased its annual financial support to Hezbollah to more than $700 million.
In this explosive environment, senior officials from the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia are expected to meet in Paris in an effort to prevent war.
However, Donald Trump said on December 16 that “Hezbollah in Lebanon is a problem” and that allied countries are ready to intervene and “clean up” the situation, indicating that war remains the most likely option.
(This giant billboard, bearing the emblem of Hezbollah, appeared in the heart of Palestine Square in Tehran, sending a clearly threatening message written in Hebrew and Arabic, directly targeting the coastal city of Naharaya: “In the next war, Naharaya prepare.”
The choice of this specific city is not accidental, as Naharaya is located in northern Israel and is one of the first targets in the event that Hezbollah unleashes the arsenal it is hiding beneath residential areas, as seen in recent intelligence reports.)
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