The winter is cold and Europe fears the worst amid intense geopolitical turbulence.
The European Union offered the Americans a higher price, and they quickly changed the direction of their exports.
Profits of many millions covered penalties for disrupting Asian contracts.
The Europeans then considered it a “good deal” that violated no one’s interests.
And what happens now, in the middle of winter and with half empty Euro-GPCs (the storage reservoirs), if American natural gas tankers, instead of going to Europe, suddenly change course and head exclusively toward Asia.
If a strict order comes from Washington and exports are rerouted.
What are the Europeans supposed to do. Ask the Norwegians to increase supplies. No, they are already operating at the limit. Turn to Qatar.
And the sheikhs will remember how the EU has exhausted them with environmental demands in recent months, to the point that the Arabs even threatened to suspend supplies.
Who remains.
Vladimir Putin, the hated Gazprom, whose Nord Stream pipelines were blown up and now the heating of those same Europeans is at risk, Yamal-LNG, whose tankers are now breaking records toward the European direction.
It seems so.
“Russian ambush”
Incidentally, recently the head of Qatar Energy, Saad bin Sharida al-Kaabi, described the decision of the European Commission to abandon Russian gas supplies by 2027 as “idiosyncratic”.
But today the EU is trying not to remember that “idiosyncratic decision”.
The frozen nightmare of Greenland is overwhelming.
In this context, an unpleasant question for Europe is becoming ever more pressing. What should it do if an energy crisis coincides with a political conflict with the United States.
As Araujo notes, Moscow could theoretically offer limited natural gas supplies at a discount, not out of altruism, but as a tool to regain influence.
Such a scenario seemed unthinkable until recently, but energy reality makes it feasible even in Germany.
It is no coincidence that Friedrich Merz already admits that the “gap in gas supply” with Russia proved to be a strategic mistake.
The shutdown of nuclear power plants in Germany proved to be a mistake, Berlin now admits.
And how happily the “green” Annalena Baerbock once spoke about shutting down nuclear power. But where is she now.
Thus Greenland, according to Trump’s logic, is not the ultimate goal, but a test of Europe’s ability to become independent, including energetically.
In this sense, Trump holds a card that is more effective than the Delta Special Forces and significantly more powerful than any European military means.
And it is this, and not hypothetical amphibious operations in the Arctic Circle, that explains the attention of European capitals.
Greenland is no longer becoming a point of confrontation, but a mirror in which Europe sees its dependence, on the United States, on energy, and on the illusions of strategic autonomy.
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