Modern wars have proven in the clearest possible way a truth that militaries have known for decades: whoever dominates the air wins the war, and wins it quickly.
The recent Absolute Resolve operations in Venezuela and Rising Lion / Midnight Hammer in Iran confirmed that decisive, overwhelming airpower can collapse a state’s defenses in minimal time.
Conversely, the Russia–Ukraine war is entering its fifth year precisely because Moscow was slow to impose full air superiority over Ukraine.
The absence of such dominance trapped the conflict in a prolonged war of attrition.
In this context, the critical question of the coming decade, according to the Eurasian Times, is clear: can the United States continue to take its air superiority over China for granted.
The answer, according to a new study by the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), is increasingly troubling for Washington.
A qualitatively different threat
The RUSI study underlines that both Russia and China have upgraded their air capabilities over the past five years.
However, the difference is fundamental.
Russian progress is gradual and evolutionary, heavily influenced by the lessons of the war in Ukraine.
Chinese progress is quantitative, qualitative, and systemic, and constitutes a radically new threat to traditional American air dominance.
RUSI clearly notes that in 2025 Chinese airpower represents a “fundamentally different level of threat” compared with 2020, especially in the Indo-Pacific theater.
The explosive expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force of China (PLAAF)
China is not merely evolving, it is producing on a massive scale.
J-16 and J-10C: the numerical backbone of power
In 2020, the PLAAF fielded approximately 90–100 J-16 heavy fighters.
By 2025, that number had surged to 450.
The production rate increased from 40 per year to 80–100 aircraft annually.
By 2030, China could field 900 J-16s.
At the same time, a fleet of up to 800 J-10C fighters is expected, aircraft equipped with AESA radar and modern sensors, which were tested in real combat conditions in May 2025 against Indian and Western aircraft.
J-20: the real counterweight to the F-35
The true game changer, however, is the J-20.
1) 2020: 40–50 aircraft
2) 2025: 120
3) Production rate: from 20 per year to 120 per year
4) 2030 estimate: up to 1,000 J-20s
For comparison, in 2025 Lockheed Martin delivered 191 F-35s, but these were distributed across 19 countries, whereas J-20s are produced exclusively for China.
The entry into production of the J-35A, a second stealth fighter, further deepens the Chinese fleet.
Why the J-20 is not a “Chinese F-35”
The J-20 was not designed as a simple copy of Western stealth aircraft.
It is part of an integrated A2/AD system.
1) Long combat radius
2) Internal bays for PL-15, PL-16, and most likely PL-17
3) Network-centric connectivity with AEW&C (KJ-500), ISR satellites, and ground systems
4) Design optimized for high-altitude, high-speed combat
RUSI emphasizes that the under-development J-36 (sixth generation, tri-engine) will have enormous range and payload, capable of radically changing the rules of aerial confrontation.
Missiles, sensors, and A2/AD: the end of “safe penetration”
American air superiority was built for decades on the ability of stealth aircraft to penetrate defended airspace.
That assumption is now being seriously challenged.
Chinese advantages:
1) PL-15 / PL-16 / PL-17 with greater range than AIM-120
2) AESA seekers for high-speed engagements
3) Documented operational success (May 2025, South Asia)
4) Multi-layered SAMs: HQ-9B/C, HQ-22, HQ-19/26
5) Experiments with ultra-long-range SAMs (up to 2,000 km)
Combined with AEW&C and satellite data, these systems create lethal A2/AD zones that threaten refueling aircraft, carrier strike groups, and forward bases at distances of 1,000 kilometers.
Training, unmanned systems, and network-centric warfare
China is investing not only in platforms but also in human and digital capital: advanced training, international exercises, UCAVs, Collaborative Combat Aircraft, and electronic warfare (Y-9LG).
The result is multi-layered airpower, not merely a fighter fleet.
The United States is not suddenly losing air superiority.
However, according to RUSI, it is no longer guaranteed.
Washington can achieve local and temporary superiority through F-22, F-35, B-21, AIM-260, CCAs, and superior operational experience.
Yet the era of unquestioned dominance in the Indo-Pacific is ending.
The question is not whether the J-20 is better than the F-35 in a dogfight.
The real question is whether the United States can maintain systemic superiority against a China that produces at scale, thinks long-term, and fights network-centrically.
The answer, as RUSI warns, is tilting in China’s favor.
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