"Get out of Donbass" – Pressure on cfor submission and peace with Russia – Putin awaits "signal" from Trump

The next few hours are considered extremely critical for negotiations regarding a peace agreement for Ukraine, as two top-level meetings are scheduled today in Davos and Moscow. The first will take place in Switzerland between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, while later tonight in Moscow, talks will follow between Russian President Vladimir Putin and American officials Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. It is evident that these two meetings are directly linked, with Moscow waiting for a "signal" from Davos to determine if Kyiv is ready to move toward a real peace deal by accepting Russia's key terms.

Trump: We are making great progress – Meeting with Zelensky underway

US President Donald Trump stated that progress has been made in the case of settling the conflict in Ukraine. "We are holding meetings and, in our view, we are making great progress," Trump declared during the founding ceremony of the "Peace Council" in Davos. Currently, the meeting between President Trump and Zelensky is underway, attended by Witkoff and Kushner, who will later travel to Moscow. "Today, as you know, President Zelensky and I will discuss it. We are meeting with President Putin today or tomorrow, and so people are going there and I think they are nearing a deal. Many people are being killed. We must finish it," Trump maintained.

The Witkoff revelation

President Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, claimed during a speech in Davos that significant progress is being recorded in talks to resolve the Ukrainian issue. Such statements are naturally met with intense skepticism by Moscow and others, although Trump said that "a deal to end the war is relatively close." While the US has held talks with Russia, and separately with Kyiv and European leaders regarding various drafts of a plan to end the war, no agreement has been reached so far despite Trump's repeated promises. However, this time Witkoff argued that the end of the war in Ukraine depends on the resolution of only one issue. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he characterized territorial issues as the most difficult topic.

The withdrawal from Donbass

According to Witkoff, the only open issue is the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbass, something that Russia demands and, according to media reports, President Trump is also requesting. However, Zelensky does not agree to this. Based on these assumptions, the sole critical issue for the Trump–Zelensky meeting in Davos is the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbass. Most likely, the American president will attempt to persuade Zelensky of this before Witkoff's scheduled meeting with Putin, as without it, the Americans' trip to Moscow becomes pointless, unless they merely reconfirm previous positions or discuss Russia's participation in the Peace Council.

Zelensky remains unpersuaded

However, Zelensky's position remains unchanged: he is against the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbass territories still controlled by Kyiv. Furthermore, he has his own list of terms with which he would like to persuade Trump in Davos, with the support of Europeans. This is a difficult venture, judging by the extremely negative atmosphere between European leaders and the American president due to the Greenland case and the verbal fire Trump launched at Europe. (Note: Europeans are holding an emergency summit today, January 22, in Brussels to assess the latest developments and the moves of the American president, with many officials speaking of a rift in the West).

The terms

In any case, Zelensky will attempt to secure a commitment from the US president to provide support guarantees for the European troops that would enter Ukraine following a ceasefire. Without such guarantees, Europeans are unwilling to send their forces. However, in the past, Trump has shown no inclination to make such a promise to avoid risking a war with Russia. He likely has no desire to do so now, given the conflict over Greenland, leading many analysts to believe it is extremely unlikely he will consent to such a request.

Bargaining

Therefore, in Davos, Zelensky will likely be offered a deal to agree to the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbass without the arrival of European forces in Ukraine, but with certain promises from Trump for support to Kyiv in the event of a new war (without commitments for military participation), as well as a large "economic" package, including the $800 billion Ukraine recovery fund and a duty-free trade zone with the US.

Will Trump threaten?

Whether Zelensky agrees essentially depends on one issue: whether Trump is ready to threaten Kyiv with practical pressure measures beyond mere persuasion. For example, fully cutting off weapons supplies and intelligence in the event of a refusal to withdraw troops from the Donetsk region. There is no guarantee that even then Zelensky would agree to the troop withdrawal. But without pressure measures from Trump, he certainly will not agree and will propose continuing negotiations, hoping to eventually convince Trump to accept Kyiv's peace proposal and exert pressure on Moscow.

Witkoff (USA): It is time to end the war in Ukraine – One issue remains

The US President's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, stated that he believes it is possible to achieve an end to the conflict in Ukraine. "It is time to complete the conflict and, I think, we will succeed," Witkoff said during an event in Davos, emphasizing that the settlement has now been narrowed down to one key issue which, according to US assessment, is solvable. "I believe everything is now reduced to one issue, and we have already discussed various options for its resolution, which means it is solvable," the American official said. According to him, with political will from both sides, an agreement can be reached.

Duty-free zone

A duty-free zone may be created in Ukraine, Reuters reported, citing the words of the White House special envoy, Witkoff. "US special envoy Witkoff: we spent last night discussing the upward trajectory of the Ukrainian economy, and I believe the establishment of a duty-free zone would radically change the situation," the agency reported. The American diplomat clarified that significant progress has been made in the peace process talks. "We have made significant progress regarding Ukraine," Witkoff stated. "At the beginning of this process, there was some confusion; I traveled quite often to Moscow, but I believe it was important to go there because now we are in the final stage," Witkoff declared, maintaining an optimistic stance.

Security guarantees

As reported by Bloomberg, the American delegation wants to discuss security guarantees for Kyiv and present plans for the completion of the conflict. The last time Witkoff and Kushner met with Putin at the Kremlin was in early December. The sides discussed the substance of the US peace initiative for Ukraine but did not reach a compromise. As the President stated, Washington divided the 27 points of the original plan into four packages and proposed considering them separately.

What Moscow says

Officially, Moscow declined to make any comment regarding the optimistic climate cultivated by the American side. The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the US President's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner will take place late tonight (Moscow time), according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. "The discussion will continue regarding the settlement of the situation in Ukraine and other related matters," Peskov noted, stating that the Russian side does not comment on the current phase of the talks. "We do not want to provide a comment on the phase of the talks," the spokesperson said, emphasizing that Putin "greatly appreciates" the peace efforts of US President Donald Trump and his team: "We welcome these efforts and their effectiveness."

The most critical 10% remains

Russian political analyst specializing in the US, Malek Dudakov, commented on Witkoff's statements regarding the final stage of the conflict, suggesting this assessment may reflect reality. The expert recalled that for many months Witkoff has been stating that "very little remains for the completion of the negotiation process and that about 90% of the issues in the final peace plan have been agreed upon." According to Dudakov, this may be true. "It's just that this last 10% is likely two or three of the most critical points. These are exactly the points causing the greatest contradictions," Dudakov stated, arguing these points concern the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass territory, the issue of Ukraine's neutral status, and the reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strength.

Stubb (Finland): Working on 5 to 7 documents for a settlement

Europe, the US, and Ukraine are working on five to seven documents regarding the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb. "I am more optimistic regarding the peace process. Why? Because now I feel that Ukraine, the United States, and Europe are on the same side. We are working on about five to seven documents, basic documents, on a 20-point plan, on security guarantees, and on the 'prosperity plan,' for example," Stubb told CNN. In December, Stubb stated that Europe had no plan of its own and that three documents were being discussed with the US: the 20-point plan, security guarantees, and the recovery of Ukraine.

Dmitriev (Russia): War instigators giving false promises

Supporters of the conflict are giving Kyiv false promises to continue military actions, claimed Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian President's special representative for investment and economic cooperation and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). "The war instigators are begging for the continuation of the war, giving false promises," Dmitriev wrote on X. In this way, Dmitriev commented on the speech by special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Kellogg (USA): The advantage to the Ukrainians... if they "make it" through winter

While President Donald Trump and Steve Witkoff state that peace in Ukraine can be achieved very soon, former special envoy Keith Kellogg believes the preparation of a deal will last at least until the end of summer. Speaking at Davos, Kellogg argued it is crucial for Ukrainians to "get through this winter." "I truly believe that if Ukraine survives this winter—January and February—and reaches March and April, the advantage will be on your side, on Ukraine's side," Kellogg said, expressing hope for a good result in the peace negotiations which he believes are in the final stages. "I hope by Independence Day this summer there will be peace in this land," Kellogg replied when asked when Ukrainian forces could fully stop the Russian army.

Putin has problems

Kellogg argued that he believes President Vladimir Putin has "big problems" because he failed to capture any major city or cross the Donbass region. In Kellogg's view, the Kremlin leader "is trying to find a good way out of this situation because he knows he will not win this war." Furthermore, he is convinced that the security guarantees being formed for Ukraine are strong enough, as they include the stationing of foreign troops and the maintenance of an army of 800,000 soldiers. "Once the war stops, it will be very difficult for Moscow to restart it," added Kellogg, who is considered a representative of the "war party" in Trump's circle, actively supporting Kyiv, for which Trump reportedly called him an "idiot."

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