In tennis, a double fault is penalized with the loss of a point. If we can say that Metlen’s management confessed to a second "fault" following the first-half results and the initial Protos loss, the market measured it very severely, as expected last Friday, February 6. The Metlen share price returned below €40 for the first time in 10 months, recording losses of 20% on the FTSE 100. More than 4.5 million shares changed hands, involving everything from institutional selling and short positions to purchases by major new foreign investors at the lows. The "serial" of recent months, which began with the London listing and initially drove the stock to €56 before a major correction began, had its first stop at €50.3, where passive FTSE 100 funds entered. From that point on, a short attack commenced, led by Covalis, Marshall, and Millennium. The latter two closed their positions as the stock exited emerging market funds at a level around €42.5–€43, from where the stock made its first rebound to €45.
Covalis is the only one remaining open, with the stock moving in a range of €41.5–€47.5, which constituted the last short-term peak of the past two weeks. There has been much positive news and a rise in aluminum prices, allowing management to lock in significant profits for the current and subsequent fiscal years.
The reversal
All of this was overturned last Friday, February 6, when the company proceeded with a stunning profit warning of 25% at the EBITDA level. Everyone was caught off guard, and the stock lost ground, balancing at €38.5 in Athens and £35.8 in London. The investment market was stunned because Metlen has not accustomed the investing community to missing its forecasts; it had shown impressive growth in recent years and served as the ultimate business model for energy, green transition, and metallurgy. This was suddenly reversed, forming the first side of the coin that abruptly changed the market's stance—a market that, due to London, has become much more demanding. Management chose not to spread the forecast adjustments over the coming quarters following the fourth-quarter 2025 accounting loss valuations by the international auditing firm, but rather to take the hit "all at once" in the 2025 results.
This marks the beginning of the second side of the coin. Metlen could not have become a bad company overnight. If, in the coming period, we see the closing of two major asset rotation deals that will bring in revenue—which, alongside the already completed UK deal, did not make it into the 2025 records—then the projections from Morgan Stanley and Citi will begin to be confirmed: that 2026 EBITDA could reach €1.2 billion. In the short term, however, there will be speculation, driven by a mistrust that will be artfully cultivated to benefit short sellers. On the other hand, the drop in valuation creates new opportunities that are beginning to be recognized by the larger funds tracking the stock due to the FTSE 100, beyond the short-term traders.
Regardless of short-term share price movement, which may vent even lower, cool-headed logic suggests this represents a good opportunity for a recovery that could yield significant capital gains over the next 12 to 15 months. Of course, not everyone will realize this immediately, and that is where the investment interest lies; those who capitalize on it first will, in our view, be the most rewarded in the future. Ultimately, Metlen will not be permanently altered by one project that yielded a loss or by a delay in completing others. The market is currently valuing neither the defense sector, nor gallium, nor Dunkirk. Consequently, beyond the negative development, one must consider many factors to evaluate its future path.
WEN
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